Everyday Killings in the nation Decline 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Statistics

The typical count of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new government figures. But, security specialists have warned that homicide figures may not indicate enhanced national stability.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was shared by the director of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we’ve had in these months is remarkably significant,” the President stated, explaining that in November the lowest number of homicides were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Intense organized crime rivalries, alongside the administration's highly military operations to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an apparently sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The main elements of the President's security plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, security researchers warned that using murder statistics to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the desire to properly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily killings was also an issue because it may mask days when there were notably elevated levels of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico is still grappling with extreme violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to build a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst remarked.